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Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Peer Community Journal's content profile, based on 281 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.21% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Productivity drives demography and sex structure in a declining waterfowl species

Caizergues, A.; Lame, A.; Souchay, G.; Tableau, A.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.15.732236 medRxiv
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Demographic models are crucial for uncovering the mechanisms underlying changing populations trajectories and structure and to identify the drivers of such changes. Common pochard populations of North east/North west Europe have experienced a sharp decline accompanied by an increase in male proportions among adults since the mid-1990. We used a two-sex, two-stage deterministic matrix population model, to perform a prospective perturbation analysis and to explore, through simulations, some plausible causes underlying the observed decline and change in sex structure. We show that Common pochard populations are more sensitive to changing survival than to changes in productivitys components (clutch size, nest survival...). However, due to an environmental variance much higher than that of survival, components of productivity, especially nest survival, would be the main drivers of Common pochard populations growth rate, a finding supported by empirical data. More importantly, we show that although sex-specific changes in survival at any stage of the life cycle are potent drivers of both population growth rate and changing sex ratio, there is no need to resort to them for explaining the increasing proportions of males such as observed in Common pochard. Because adult males display higher survival than adult females (0.74 against 0.64 on average), any factor affecting recruitment (nest or first year survival) increases the weight of adults into the populations and hence the proportion of males. Thus, in species displaying sex-biased mortality, such as many ducks, decreasing recruitment can underly declining population size and changes in sex structure at the same time, emphasising the importance of accounting for males in monitoring schemes and demographic models.

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Highly persistent antibody levels but limited population immunity in gannets after HPAI outbreak

Boulinier, T.; Lejeune, M.; Massin, P.; Niqueux, E.; Deniau, A.; Woerle, R.; Bernard, A.; Ponchon, A.; Martin, T.; Fort, J.; Grasland, B.; Gremillet, D.; Provost, P.; Tornos, J.

2026-08-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.25.745523 medRxiv
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The recent large-scale circulation of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HP AI) viruses H5Nx of clade 2.3.4.4b has been responsible for massive die-offs in wild species, notably in long-lived seabirds, with unknown implications for the immunity of surviving individuals. In the North Atlantic, northern gannet colonies were heavily affected in 2022, with more than 40% mortality observed among breeding adults and some surviving individuals developing dark irises. Using samples collected in 2023 and 2024 on Rouzic colony (France), we report persistent individual anti-AI antibody levels and seroneutralisation titres, with most of the immune individuals showing dark irises. A modelling approach further stressed the importance of long-lasting immunity in such species by showing that the proportion of individuals which kept their immunity between years strongly limited decreases in population size in case of repeated outbreaks. Overall, our results highlight the existence and importance of long-lasting immunity in long-lived species for population persistence.

3
An exact version of Hunt's ancestor-descendant directional random walk parameterization

Ergon, R.

2026-08-25 paleontology 10.64898/2026.08.21.746177 medRxiv
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Hunt s ancestor-descendant parameterization for fitting of evolutionary models to empirical paleontological sequences assumes independent log-likelihoods for the transitions between populations (Hunt, 2006). This is not quite correct, as he also pointed out in his paper. The reason is that adjacent trait differences share a trait mean value and its sampling error, and ignorance of this fact may give large errors in the estimated step size. Here, the problem is solved by use of the N-1 dimensional normal density for a random vector, where N is the number of samples. This results in a tridiagonal covariance matrix instead of Hunt s diagonal matrix, and the estimated step sizes, and thus prediction slopes, in cases where the estimated step variance is zero will then be identical to those found by weighted least squares estimation.

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Matching lynx population estimates to management scale: conservation science vs politics in the western Swiss Alps

Verschueren, S.; Braunisch, V.; Debons, V.; Arlettaz, R.

2026-08-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.25.747176 medRxiv
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Reliable population estimates are essential for wildlife management, yet monitoring schemes often do not match the administrative scale at which decisions are made. We illustrate this challenge using the Eurasian lynx in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, where official state monitoring is fragmented across three reference areas surveyed in different years. We analyzed three winters (2023-2026) of independent, canton-wide camera trap data, recording 899 independent lynx captures (27, 31 and 34 adults per winter). Lynx distribution and reproduction concentrated in the Northwest and connected to the thriving Pre-alpine populations. Density modelling for 2025/2026 estimated 37 independent lynx (95% CI: 26-52) on the whole cantonal territory, corresponding to a density of 1.09 (0.77-1.56) individuals per 100 km2. These estimates are substantially below the figures improperly extrapolated from a cross-cantonal reference area and conveyed by political authorities. Future lynx management decisions should be rooted in scientifically sound, scale-relevant information.

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Dysregulation of pupal diapause in hybrid progenies, introgression and species delimitation within and beyond the Old World Swallowtail (Papilio machaon Linnaeus) butterfly complex

Michel, F. J.; Legal, L.; Kunte, K.; Descimon, H.

2026-07-03 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.30.735657 medRxiv
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In search of recurrent patterns of postzygotic hybrid incompatibility, we investigated the Holarctic 'Old World Swallowtail' (Papilio machaon Linnaeus) butterfly complex, whose members can easily be crossed in the laboratory. How many species this model system comprises remains unclear, as taxa with highly distinctive larvae but uncertain status come into contact with authentic P. machaon subspecies in Southern parts of the Palearctic region. By determining mitochondrial and ITS2 haplotypes within and away from contact zones, we found that these neighboring populations do exchange genes, as expected from F1 hybrids being generally fertile in our laboratory crosses. Nevertheless, recurrent instances of dysregulation of diapause were uncovered in hybrid progenies. In keeping with Haldane's Rule, pupae of the heterogametic (female) sex were either unable to enter diapause or, in reciprocal crosses, unable to resume development after having initiated diapause, whereas F1 males experienced normal, photoperiod-regulated diapause, but passed on abnormal diapause regulation to part of their female offspring when backcrossed. Comparing male and female pupal weights in hybrid progenies provides estimates of parental incompatibility that allow to rank taxa and predict quantitatively the outcome of additional crosses, as expected if the same regulatory system were involved. A survey of the entomological literature confirms that diapausing pupae that cannot resume development ('perpetual nymphs') are a recurrent feature of interspecific lepidopteran crosses. Moreover, of the two parent species of a perpetual nymph, the paternal one generally has fewer broods per year. These observations are discussed in the light of models of the speciation process.

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Revisiting Cucuruchu, a Late Pleistocene site on the Venezuelan Caribbean coast with megafauna and lithic association

Carrillo Briceno, J. D.; Reyes-Cespedes, A. E.; Jaimes, A.; Zabala Reyes, M.; Cadena, E. A.; Sanchez, R.; Carlini, A. A.; Zazzo, A.; Sanchez-Villagra, M. R.

2026-06-29 paleontology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734162 medRxiv
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The study of historical documents from the original excavation led by J. M. Cruxent, of museum collections, as well as results of fieldwork, are combined to provide a revised assessment of the archeologically site of Cucuruchu, which together with those of Taima-Taima and Muaco, document megafaunal lithic remains associated from the Late Pleistocene in northern Venezuela. Six vertebrate taxa are reported for Cucuruchu: five megaherbivores (a giant sloth, Eremotherium laurillardi; a glyptodontid, Glyptotherium cf. G. cylindricum; a macrauchenid, cf. Xenorhinotherium bahiense; a proboscidean, Notiomastodon platensis; and an equid, Equus sp.), and a turtle (Kinosternon sp.). Two fragments of El Jobo projectiles were found in situ lying among megaherbivores bones, while another unidentified projectile fragment was also found in the same layer. Although no direct evidence of human exploitation on these megaherbivores remains has been found, the presence of El Jobo projectiles in the undisturbed fossil-bearing layer some of which are associated with fossil remains, could be a suggestive of such interaction. Two new radiocarbon dates indicate ages of at least ca. 15.3-16.0 kyr cal BP for the fossil-bearing layer, contrasting with the mid to late Holocene age originally reported. Cucuruchu is a window to the past and supports the presence of hunter-gatherers of the El Jobo culture in the region at the end of the Pleistocene.

7
It happened again - emergence of a Shamonda-like orthobunyavirus in Central Europe, 2026

Wernike, K.; Hoffmann, B.; Link, E. K.; Rotheneder, S.; Eshak, M.; Pfaff, F.; Hoeper, D.; Beer, M.

2026-08-06 microbiology 10.64898/2026.08.06.743243 medRxiv
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Since mid-June 2026, an acute, non-fatal syndrome with high herd morbidity, reduced milk yield, diarrhea, fever and lethargy affected dairy cattle in southern Germany and Switzerland. Major viral pathogens were excluded. Pan-Simbuvirus PCR first detected an orthobunyavirus, subsequently confirmed by metagenomic sequencing, which enabled recovery of a complete "Shamonda-like" genome. One sentence summary lineMore than a decade after the emergence of Schmallenberg virus in 2011, a novel "Shamonda-like" orthobunyavirus of the Simbu serogroup has now emerged in Central Europe.

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Morphogenomic description of Cranifera cranifera (Chitwood, 1932) Kloss, 1960 from captive Blaptica dubia Serville, 1838 cockroach

Morffe, J.; Guiglielmoni, N.; Wassey, N.; Gueddach, K.; Schuster, A.; Becker, K.; Schiffer, P.; Holovachov, O.

2026-07-20 zoology 10.64898/2026.07.17.739199 medRxiv
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Nematodes of the superfamily Thelastomatoidea are found in the digestive system of various arthropods, feeding on their host microbiome. They are sometimes considered to be ecologically intermediate forms between free-living rhabditids and parasitic Spirurina, while phylogenetically they are nested within the latter. In addition to new morphological data on the male morphology, this manuscript presents the first nuclear genome assembly of a thelastomatid species, Cranifera cranifera, using long-read sequencing approach, making a total of three nuclear genomes available for superfamilyThelastomatoidea. The C. cranifera nuclear genome assembly presented here is 246 Mb long, consists of 7563 contigs, has an N50 of 43 kb and includes 94% of the BUSCO nematoda_odb12 genes. The mitochondrial genome is 24646 bases long, includes a complete set of protein coding, rRNA and tRNA genes, and a repetitive region 9731 bases long, which includes multiple copies of tRNA-Asn(gtt) and tRNA-Lys(ttt). The nuclear assembly also contained two sequence variants of the 28S rRNA gene, highlighting the presence of intragenomic variation within rRNA operon. The newly generated assemblies (nuclear and organelle) will add to a growing body of genomic resources for underrepresented and understudied animal parasitic nematodes from the Clade 3, enabling comprehensive studies in their phylogeny and trait evolution in the future.

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Temperature and ecomorphology linked to blood pathogen incidence in neotropical amphibians

Xavier, J. P. d. O.; Almeida-Silva, D.; Marcili, A.; Speranca, M. A.; Jordao, F. T.; Cabral, A. D.; Verdade, V. K.

2026-07-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.07.736756 medRxiv
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While emerging diseases pose a global threat to amphibians, the dynamics of understudied vector-borne blood pathogens remain poorly understood. Pathogen occurrence is driven by a combination of environmental, ecological, and phylogenetic factors, yet how these drivers shape blood pathogen communities in tropical amphibians is largely unknown. In this study, we used molecular screening and phylogenetic linear models (PGLMMs) to evaluate how climate and ecomorphology influence the incidence of three blood pathogen groups (Trypanosomatidae, Hepatozoon, and Rickettsia) in wild anurans from a protected area in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Among 93 individuals sampled, over 93% were infected with at least one pathogen. Trypanosomatidae was the most common (76.3%), followed by Rickettsia (69.9%) and Hepatozoon (16.1%). Pathogen responses to temperature were contrasting: Hepatozoon occurrence increased in warmer periods, while Trypanosomatidae declined. Furthermore, rheophilic species showed a lower probability of Rickettsia infection, providing the first evidence that microhabitat use influences blood pathogen dynamics in amphibians. Our findings demonstrate that hemoparasites prevalence is driven by a multifaceted interplay of variables, highlighting that conservation strategies must account for these pathogen-specific responses to habitat use and environmental change, even within protected areas.

10
Flight performance of the highly invasive box tree moth Cydalima perspectalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

Bras, A.; Auger-Rozenberg, M.-A.; Rousselet, J.; Roques, A.; Sauvard, D.

2026-06-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.06.730098 medRxiv
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The multivoltine non-native box tree moth, Cydalima perspectalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), was accidentally introduced in several continents and exhibited a very rapid expansion in its invaded ranges, colonising around 40 countries in less than twenty years. Initially observed in urban areas, it quickly spread to forest stands, causing significant damage to boxwood trees. If the role of the ornamental plant trade in its fast invasion has been investigated, the insects flight capabilities has thus far been overlooked, limiting estimations of its natural dispersal. In this context, we assessed the flight performance of the adults and investigated potential effects of sex, age and generation using computer-monitored flight mills. Under these controled conditions, we estimated the distance flown per night and over the adults lifespan in both sexes for each generation. The adults were able to fly on average 18 km within their lifespan, even though distances flown were highly variable, including several females capable of performing long-distance flights (up to 150 km). The distances covered were partly correlated with the age and body mass of the adults. Mated females flew longer distances than virgin ones, but long dispersal seemed to limit their fecundity. Finally, the overwintering generation presented the highest flight capabilities with individuals able to cover 22 km on average while the late summer generation covered only 10 km. The box tree moth showed good dispersal abilities that likely played a significant role in its rapid local expansion, while human-mediated dispersal favoured its long-distance dispersal.

11
Wolbachia facilitates the reproduction of a parthenogenetic ladybug

Jecha, K.; Parthuisot, N.; Lecompte, E.; Magro, A.; Schwander, T.

2026-06-17 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.16.732365 medRxiv
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Wolbachia is a bacterial endosymbiont that is primarily transmitted from mother to offspring. To increase their transmission, some strains manipulate their hosts reproduction to favor female offspring, such as by inducing parthenogenesis. Here, we assess whether Wolbachia induces parthenogenesis in recently discovered parthenogenetic populations of the ladybug Nephus voeltzkowi by treating females with an antibiotic. Females from sexual populations, which we show are not infected by Wolbachia, serve as a control. Our results demonstrate that the treatment decreases Wolbachia load, subsequently reducing egg production and development among parthenogenetic females, while having no effect on sexual females. Wolbachia load and reproduction then rebound when the treatment is removed. This suggests that the Wolbachia infection is necessary for successful reproduction in the parthenogenetic females, and it may play a two-part role by facilitating egg laying and late embryo development. The cooccurrence of Wolbachia infection and parthenogenesis in N. voeltzkowi, as well as Wolbachias manipulation of host reproduction makes a likely candidate of Wolbachia-induced parthenogenesis outside of haplo-diploids. Understanding how Wolbachia can impact diverse insect reproductive systems can shed a light on the extent in which these bacteria can manipulate hosts for their own gain.

12
Latitudinal effects on weight and age-dependent survival of red fox Vulpes vulpes

Willebrand, T.; Odden, M.; Ostbye, K.; Samelius, G.; Walton, Z.; Spong, G.; Englund, J.

2026-06-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.29.735157 medRxiv
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Age-dependent survival is central to understanding population dynamics and life-history evolution. We analysed carcass weight and age-at-harvest data from 6022 red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) collected across Sweden between 1967 and 1971 to evaluate latitudinal effects on body mass and age-dependent survival. Carcass weights decreased from south to north in both adults and sub-adults, contrary to Bergmann's rule, with southern foxes weighing approximately 1.27 times more than northern foxes. The latitudinal weight gradient exceeded the sex difference in both age classes, and no sex x region interaction was detected. The decrease in weight with latitude is consistent with reduced prey availability and harsher winter conditions in the north, which limit growth and body size during development. Using a Bayesian age-at-harvest model with region-specific population growth rates (lambda), we estimated age-dependent survival probabilities for four latitudinal regions and both sexes. Despite the strong latitudinal gradient in weight, survival did not show a corresponding pattern - regional differences were uncertain, with all credible intervals spanning zero. Regional population growth rates were consistent with slight decline in the north and near-stability in the south-central region, which suggests that body condition and population dynamics are coupled at the regional scale despite no survival gradient. The decoupling of body condition and survival across regions suggests that mortality patterns are similar across the latitudinal gradient. We discuss these patterns in terms of latitudinal productivity gradients, prey availability, and life-history trade-offs in a widely distributed carnivore.

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Orthology transfer maps only the conserved core of the Varroa destructor proteome and over-calls host absence two times in three

Ryba, S.

2026-08-26 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.08.20.745999 medRxiv
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The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor is the principal threat to managed honey bees, and a test case for the genome-scale methods applied to non-model organisms, nearly all of which infer from orthology. We reconstructed the first genome-wide protein-interaction network for V. destructor (7,080 proteins, 335,914 interactions), whose modular structure exceeds a degree-preserving null by 368 standard deviations, but whose every edge is interolog-transferred and every node conserved at least to Eukaryota. None of the 791 genes lacking an orthologous group enters it - arithmetic rather than discovery - yet the excluded compartment is large and coherent. It comprises 3,161 genes (30.9% of the proteome), shorter and less annotated than the rest; an annotation-free genome search detects orphans in a tick genome at 4.0% against 70.4% for networked genes. Within the orthology-bearing compartment visibility is non monotonic: the Acari-level bin (74.1%) falls below the Arthropoda-level bin (89.9%). The same logic applied to host comparison yields a benchmarked error: of genes called absent from Apis on group identity alone, 67.4% recover a sequence homologue - against zero for a shuffled null and 1.3% in the presence direction - rising to 78.3% in the least panel-biased stratum. Both figures are properties of the calling rule: under an identity floor the error directions cross near 34% identity; orthology cannot be said to err in either direction without fixing the criterion first. Host divergence resolves into gene absence and residue level substitution, falling in those two compartments respectively. A bee-sparing target map follows as broader impact.

14
Evaluation of ivermectin effectiveness under contrasting anthelmintic resistance scenarios in beef cattle: a comparative study in Italy and Argentina

Canton, C.; Bosco, A.; Maurelli, M. P.; Vitiello, P.; Ceballos, L.; Dominguez, P.; Moriones, L.; Torres, J. M.; Alvarez, L.; Rinaldi, L.; Lanusse, C.

2026-07-31 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.07.28.741160 medRxiv
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Beef cattle farming plays a crucial role in the livestock-related economies of both Italy and Argentina. Although both countries have grazing systems of meat production, the heterogeneity of those systems leads to different parasitological scenarios regarding epidemiology and the presence of resistance to commonly used anthelmintic drugs. Considering ivermectin (IVM) is the most widely used anthelmintic for treating gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) infections in cattle, the current studies evaluated the efficacy of ivermectin (IVM) given subcutaneously (SC) to both young calves and adult cows in ten (10) commercial cattle farms from Italy (A to E) and Argentina (F to J). The work was complemented with the assessment of the IVM plasma exposure and disposition kinetics both in young and adult animals. While adult cows and young calves were included in the study performed in Italy (Campania region), only calves aged 8-14 months old were selected to perform the efficacy trials in Argentina (central area of the Buenos Aires province). Fifteen (15) calves/cows naturally infected with GINs were treated with IVM (0.2 mg/kg) in each of the Farms. The therapeutic response (efficacy) was determined at 14 days after treatment by the faecal egg count reduction test. Six (6) adult cows and eight (8) young calves treated with IVM were randomly selected to perform the pharmacokinetic (PK) study with blood samples being taken 2 h and 21 days post-treatment. Drug concentrations were measured by HPLC. Similar IVM PK trends were obtained for both adult and young cattle. The IVM systemic exposure (expressed as AUC) obtained for adult cattle (380{+/-}158 ng.d/mL) was similar to that observed in calves group (313{+/-}85.5 ng.d/mL). No statistical differences between animals from both ages were observed for the most representative PK parameters (P>0.05). Surprisingly, while in Argentina IVM resistance was present in all the farms evaluated (90% CI = 0%-95%), in Italy a fully susceptible nematode population was presented in three farms (90% CI = 96%-100%) and only a very low level of IVM resistance was detected in the rest of the farms (90% CI = 92%-98%). Whereas Cooperia spp. and Haemonchus spp. were identified as the principal genera exhibiting resistance to IVM in Argentina, Cooperia spp., Ostertagia spp., and Oesophagostomum spp. were reported to display low levels of resistance under the Italian field scenario. In conclusion, IVM can be safely and effectively used in both young and adult cattle with similar disposition kinetic patterns. While its therapeutic response is failing under the conditions investigated in the Argentinian farms, its efficacy remains notably high in the Italian region under study. However, the use of IVM, as well any other active antiparasitic principle, should always be preceded by a diagnostic assessment of the nematode populations resistance status.

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A hybrid approach combining a phylogenetic method and Approximate Bayesian Computation Random Forest for phylogenetic network inference: application to the rice domestication process in Asia

Rabier, C.-E.; Berry, V.; Glaszmann, J.-C.

2026-07-17 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.07.13.738130 medRxiv
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Asian rice is one of the best documented crops in terms of genetic diversity. The domestication process, that probably started 9000 years ago in China, remains difficult to infer since the main vertical signal is blurred by horizontal signals related to gene flow among cultivars and wild relatives. Consequently, a large number of hypotheses on the domestication process of rice have been published. Besides, most of the methods used to infer these scenarios do not model all the known biological phenomena at stake. Here, we present a methodological study based on a rich stochastic model, that incorporates introgression events, incomplete lineage sorting, and mutations that happen over time. The global evolutionary scenario is represented by a phylogenetic network. Furthermore, each locus scenario is modeled according to a locus tree through the Multispecies Network Coalescent. More importantly, for inferring the phylogenetic network, we propose a new hybrid approach combining a phylogenetic network method and a machine learning technique. In particular, our hybrid approach, named SO_SCPLOWNARFC_SCPLOW, benefits from advantages of a mathematical phylogenetic method, SO_SCPLOWNAPPC_SCPLOWNO_SCPLOWETC_SCPLOW, and from the potential of a powerful machine learning classifier, i.e. Approximate Bayesian Computation Random Forest (ABC-RF). These two methods are complementary since SO_SCPLOWNAPPC_SCPLOWNO_SCPLOWETC_SCPLOW reconstructs network accurately, whereas ABC-RF is able to handle a large amount of data. The originality is twofold. First, prior distributions required for ABC-RF are calibrated thanks to SO_SCPLOWNAPPC_SCPLOWNO_SCPLOWETC_SCPLOWs estimates. Secondly, ABC-RF relies on summary statistics inspired by phylogenetic network literature. We show, on simulated data, that the SO_SCPLOWNARFC_SCPLOW hybrid approach enjoys very good performances. On rice real data, it infers a scenario with a unique domestication (that of Japonica), followed by three reticulation events involving early Japonica. It highlights two introgression events at the origin of Indica and cAus, and one admixture event responsible for the emergence of cBas. Author summaryToday, in genomics, there is a real need for methods able to infer phylogenetic networks. A phylogenetic network is a directed graph representing events like hybridization, introgression, and horizontal gene transfer. Understanding these complex biological phenomena, essential for crop adaptation, can help breeders when facing challenges like climate change and population growth. Genome-wide diversity analysis thus requires network methods scaling for large data volumes and incorporating fundamental biological phenomena. In this context, we present a new hybrid approach, SO_SCPLOWNARFC_SCPLOW, that benefits from the potential of a powerful machine learning classifier, Approximate Bayesian Computation Random Forest, and from advantages of a mathematical phylogenetic method, SO_SCPLOWNAPPC_SCPLOWNO_SCPLOWETC_SCPLOW. Consequently, SO_SCPLOWNARFC_SCPLOW is able to handle large data-sets thanks to machine learning and is also based on a deep mathematical theory. On simulated data, our hybrid approach performs very well. When applied to real rice genomic data, it supports a scenario with a single domestication event, that of Japonica. The analysis further highlights the role of early Japonica in the origin of both Indica and circumAus. Finally, it identifies an ancient admixture event, involving circumAus in the emergence of circumBasmati. Together, these findings confirm the importance of early rice history along the Himalayan region.

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Mortality causes and annual survival rates of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes).

Willebrand, T.; Odden, M.; Walton, Z.; Samelius, G.; Ostbye, K.; Soderberg, B.; Spong, G.

2026-07-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.18.739295 medRxiv
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Mortality causes and survival rate estimates from individual follow-ups of GPS-collared animals provide reliable demographic data, but such estimates are rare for red foxes Vulpes vulpes. We used data from 126 GPS-collared red foxes tracked between 2011 and 2019 across a latitudinal gradient in central Sweden and Norway to quantify mortality causes and estimate annual survival probabilities using the Andersen-Gill extension of the Cox proportional hazards model. Hunting was the dominant mortality cause (63%), followed by vehicle collisions (14%), stress or malnutrition (11%), sarcoptic mange (9%), and predation (3%). Annual survival was 0.58 for adults and 0.32 for subadults. Subadults had approximately twice the hazard of adults, males had elevated hazard relative to females, and mortality risk was highest in autumn and early winter. These collar-based estimates are strikingly similar to mark-recovery estimates from the same region nearly five decades earlier, despite an intervening population collapse from sarcoptic mange, subsequent full recovery, and a major decline in harvest pressure. This convergence is consistent with density-dependent regulation at a food-determined and food-limited carrying capacity, suggesting that current harvest levels are not limiting the population. Furthermore, human-caused mortality was approximately four times greater than natural mortality, illustrating that living in close proximity to humans -- which often favours generalist predators such as red foxes -- may also come at a cost of increased mortality risk. Developing validated census methods for red foxes in boreal Scandinavia is identified as a key priority for quantitative population management.

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Linking geography and mutation profiles across goat species

Bionda, A.; Crepaldi, P.; Prendergast, J. G. D.; Neupane, M.; Amills, M.; Rosen, B. D.; Tosser-Klopp, G.; Milanesi, M.; Talenti, A.; The VarGoats Consortium,

2026-07-14 genomics 10.64898/2026.07.09.737241 medRxiv
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Recent studies have characterised the mutational profile across multiple mammalian species, highlighting substantial differences across lineages. However, none of these studies investigated whether mutation profiles and geography are significantly correlated. In this study, we present a multi-genome alignment spanning several Capra taxa, reconstruct the ancestral genome of Capra hircus and use it to characterize the mutational profiles across multiple Capra species by using the 1000 genomes VarGoats dataset. Results confirmed that the scale of differences among Capra species largely reflects their phylogenetic relationships, in particular with the Bezoar being genetically closer to domestic goats than to other wild species. Subsequently, we correlated the mutational profile and the geographical origin of the different individuals. In particular, ACG>ATG changes have the strongest correlation with longitude (r = -0.79, P-value = 3.02*10-204), while TCA>TGA are strongly correlated with latitude (r = -0.51, P-value = 4.30*10-63). We highlight how sequential dinucleotide mutations (SDMs) place cosmopolitan breeds closer to the sampling location, rather than the country of origin, showing how the recent relocation of cosmopolitan breeds to new continents is reshaping the genome of these animals. Finally, we used the mutational profile to predict the coordinate of origin of each animal in the dataset. In conclusion, we show the important role that geography had in shaping the genomes of domestic goats.

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Mitochondrial DNA haplotypes reveal a fine-scale population structure in sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) around Sao Miguel Island (Azores)

Suciu, S. R. A.; Azevedo, J. M. N.; O'Callaghan, S. A.; Serranito, B.; Jung, J.-L.

2026-07-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.21.739783 medRxiv
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The sperm whale is an emblematic species of the Azores archipelago. After a century of intensive whaling, the species has become a focal point for ecotourism since the late 1980s, enabling collaborative research during tourism activities. This study assessed the feasibility of using a citizen science based non-invasive sampling approach to evaluate the genetic diversity of local sperm whales. Seven local whale-watching companies contributed to collect 70 fecal samples and 34 sloughed skin fragments between 2019 and 2024. A 588-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA Control Region (MCR) was successfully sequenced from 56 fecal samples and all skin fragments, yielding 90 MCR sequences assigned to 79 individual sperm whales. MCR sequences from both sources of the same individuals were in perfect agreement, validating the use of fecal samples for mitochondrial haplotype analysis - the first study to do so in sperm whales. Four MCR haplotypes, including a newly determined one, evidenced different maternal lineages within the Macaronesia population. Haplotypes showed a clear geographic pattern around Sao Miguel Island: one was restricted almost exclusively to the south coast, while the other three occurred predominantly on the north. This contrasted distribution is likely correlated to different matrilineal groups.

19
Phylogenetic inference from an incomplete fossil record

Hohmann, N.; Warnock, R. C. M.; Jarochowska, E.

2026-06-28 paleontology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734220 medRxiv
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Fossil data is crucial to construct phylogenetic time trees, which serve as the basis to test a wide range of evolutionary hypotheses. While the fossil record is known to be incomplete, modern stratigraphy provides predictions of the structure of the fossil record as expressed by gap location and duration. Advances in phylogenetic model development allow us to propagate this information into Bayesian phylogenetic inference in the form of priors on time-variable fossil sampling. However, the impact and role of stratigraphic architectures on time tree inference has so far remained unexplored. We introduce a novel simulation framework that combines realistic stratigraphic forward models with phylogenetic simulations. Using this framework, we examine (1) how stratigraphically plausible model violations of fossil sampling due to gaps affect total-evidence inference under the fossilized birth-death model and (2) if stratigraphic knowledge on gap duration and timing improves inference when incorporated in priors on fossil sampling. We find that total-evidence analysis is robust to stratigraphically plausible distribution of gaps in disparate stratigraphic architectures, with results being instead dominated by the number of morphological characters. Surprisingly, incorporating information on prominent gaps in the stratigraphic record does not improve phylogenetic inference. Our results suggest that phylogenetic inference is robust to model violations introduced by stratigraphic gaps over short timescales, with results being dominated by a priori known data availability constraints such as morphological character matrix size. This research establishes the foundations for joint modeling of phylogenetic and stratigraphic processes and narrows the knowledge gap between paleontology, stratigraphy, and neontology.

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A chromosome-level reference genome of the largest cervid species - the European moose (Alces alces; Linnaeus, 1758)

Torresen, O. K.; Mysterud, A.; Skage, M.; Danneels, B.; Strand, M. A.; Ferrari, G.; Tooming-Klunderud, A.; Jakobsen, K. S.

2026-07-08 genomics 10.64898/2026.07.03.736352 medRxiv
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We describe a chromosome-level, haplotype-resolved genome assembly from a male European moose (Alces alces alces). The assembly comprises two pseudo-haplotypes of 3,148 Mb and 3,112 Mb, with sex chromosomes in haplotype one, and 33 autosomes in each haplotype (68 in total). Assembly completeness is high (BUSCO 98.3% and 95.7%), with 21,496 and 20,498 annotated protein-coding genes for haplotypes one and two, respectively. This genome assembly is the most complete so far generated for European moose.